Indian Market Outlook: Indian Benchmark Index Nifty saw a volatile range bound movement between 8024-7953 yesterday. Yesterday being the last day of November F&O series, volatility was high as expected. The major Indian Indices namely Nifty, Bank Nifty and the Small Cap Index are all trading at a major support level. Nifty spot is testing its Brexit low of 7927 made on 24 June 2016. Whereas Bank Nifty is showing a comparative strength since it has not even touched its Trump's low of 18143 made on Nov 9 where the Brexit low was 16946. Small Cap has also joined the group outperforming the benchmark Nifty. Small Cap has tested its Trump low of 5427 and is already up by 200 points from the lows. This shows that the broader market has already started to pick up momentum and an upside rally is just around the corner. We should expect a buying in the December series as RBI might slash interest rates by 50 basis points triggering a short covering rally. Important resistance for Nifty lies at 8140, any meaningful rally would be above this level.
FII have been net sellers on the cash markets but past two days there has been some buying in NSE Small Cap Index which has risen up by 200 points from low of 5408. However, FII have ended the month of November with a net selling in the cash market worth Rs. 17023 Cr, the highest single month sell figures for the year 2016.
Nifty Dec Futures is expected to open at 8031 as per SGX Nifty at 8:30 am IST, which is 21 points above its previous close of 8010.
FII Monthly Cash Activity for 2016
FII's have sold shares worth Rs. 17023.37 Cr in the month of Nov. Such heavy selling was experienced in the month of Jan, 2016 to the tune of Rs. 14356 Cr and it stretched into the month of February where FII's were sellers worth Rs. 12513 Cr and Nifty reacted negatively by ending February down 550 points from Jan close.The current selling also signals an extended weakness in the markets.
Top 3 option strikes for Nov Expiry:
The above table shows that for the month of November, heavy Open Interest in call stands at 8200 strike and in Put at 8000 strike. As signaled the expiry closed at 8165.
Open Interest Index F&O and Cash Segment Activity:
In cash segment, last trading day, FII have sold shares worth Rs.2010.20 Cr and DII bought shares worth Rs. 1648 Cr. A combined sell of Rs. 361.93 Cr. For this expiry, FII and DII together are sellers worth Rs. 1936.20 Cr.
In Index Options, last trading day, FII have bought 259490 contracts, above its 1 year average of 18280 contracts. Pro have bought 72181 contracts, above its 1 year average of 27670 contracts. Combined there has been a net buy of 331671 contracts, above its 1 year average of 39000 contracts. For the current expiry, FII and Pro combined are net sellers of 172101 contracts.
In Index Futures, last trading day, FII have sold 48538 contracts, above its 1 year average of 9706 contracts. Pro have bought 31935 contracts, above its 1 year average of 4903 contracts. Combined there has been a net sell of 16603 contracts above its 1 year average of 9401 contracts. For the current expiry, FII and Pro combined are net sellers of 84197 contracts.
International Market Morning Update:
International markets remain in the uptrend. S&P Futures is trading firmly above 2200 and German Dax continues its trading in a range of 10650-10800. The divergence between developed and emerging markets also continues, where the latter is weak because of short term rise in US Interest rate in December.
In today's trading Japan's Nikkei is trading up by 0.77%.
Markets await policy disclosure after Trump takes oath on January 20th 2017. Major event going forward is the US rate hike likely to be happening in the December's FED policy meet.
Data as on 24th November 2016. The % change is taken from previous day's close.
DISCLAIMER:
Research Team - Tel: 033-30010001, write to us at clientsupport@dynamiclevels.com to give feedback. Website:www.dynamiclevels.com
1. The investment advice or guidance provided by way of recommendations, reports or other ways are solely the personal views of the research team. Users are advised to use the data for the purpose of information and rely on their own judgment while making investment decision
2. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns.
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