Fall in Crude Oil Price, caution signal for Markets

NYMEX Crude oil traded between USD 38.77 to USD 36.68 on 14^th March 2016. It closed at USD 37.18 which is 1.84 points below its closing of USD 39.02 on 11^th March 2016. 

MCX Crude Oil followed the trend and declined by 1 ADM – Average Daily Movement (110.65) from its closing on 11^th March 2016 to its closing on 14th March 2016. It closed at 2500 level in its previous trading session. Since this morning there has been no noticeable change in Crude Price in MCX which is trading at 2487.

Fall in crude oil prices in the Asian markets, resulted in weak trading sentiment in futures market too.

International Market Outlook

Despite regional losses in German State election DAX opened near the previous day high of 9895 and continued its uptrend as investors digested the stimulus from ECB. However, the EuroStoxx was not able to clear 3130 (post ECB High); this suggests that the markets can still see selling from these levels. The US markets are trading in a small range of 10 pts as investors await the US FED meeting tomorrow. We have the Central Bank’s policy meet for US, Japan, Switzerland and UK, all scheduled to be announced this week.

After a dip in International and Domestic Crude Prices, we have seen Asian Markets reacting  negatively since this morning. Indices like Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, Kospi, SGX Nifty were all seen trading in the red zone.  NASDAQ, FTSE100, DAX, CAC 40 all closed in the positive side of the market yesterday. We have to wait for their trading session to begin today to see their reaction to the declining  Crude Price.

NIFTY at a glance

Following cues from International Market, NSE NIFTY Share Price has declined by 40 points since morning.  Lupin, Zeel, ITC, Wipro are among the Top Losers of Nifty Today. Banking Sectors was noticed to be doing really well inspite of fall in NIFTY. PNB, SBIN, Yes Bank, Bank of Baroda are among the Top Nifty 50 gainers so far.

Small Cap Index Outlook

Small Cap Index is struggling to trade above 4850, with crude oil correcting almost 2 dollar from recent high of 38.80 which is a cautious signal for the markets. We suggest our clients to be in profit booking mode as markets may correct to 4675 levels.

Small Cap Index yesterday traded in a narrow range of 53 points.

Stocks to watch out for Today

Scrip	Sector	LTP	% Fall	% Budget Rise
TVTODAY	MEDIA AND PUBLISHING	298.85	-10%	1%
NILKAMAL	HOUSEHOLD GOODS	1107.35	-23%	14%
NOCIL	CHEMICALS	44.8	-32%	15%
SCI	MARINE CONSTRUCTION AND SERVICES	64	-39%	14%
LLOYDELENG	HOUSEHOLD GOODS	216.6	-41%	22%
HIMATSEIDE	TEXTILES AND APPAREL	201	-30%	36%
GRANULES	PHARMACEUTICALS	125.3	-27%	18%

% FALL is movement of share from 4th Jan to 29th Feb

% RISE is movement of share from 29th Feb to Last Traded Price

US FED meeting is due on 16th March 2016, which is the next big event markets are waiting for. S&P 500 is trading at 2013 after making a high of 2024 yesterday.

Source: www.dynamiclevels.com